Tool
Heat pump vs AC: the running-cost arithmetic
With matched efficiencies, cooling costs the same either way; the difference is heating. Enter your own electricity and gas rates and last year's heating therms, and the calculator shows both annual costs and the arithmetic behind them.
Run the numbers with your rates
The calculator itself sends nothing to us. It works out an estimate from your inputs and does not promise any saving.
How the calculator works
- Cooling: size × 12,000 Btu/h × hours ÷ (SEER2 × 1,000) = kWh, times your electricity rate. The same for both systems when SEER2 matches.
- Furnace heating: the therms you entered, times your gas rate.
- Heat pump heating: the heat those therms delivered (therms × 100,000 Btu × AFUE) ÷ (HSPF2 × 1,000) = kWh, times your electricity rate.
- Install cost: the published 2026 DFW range for central AC at the chosen size, and the all-sizes DFW band for a ducted heat pump. AC on its own does not include a new furnace.
Getting your inputs from your bills
The calculator uses your numbers because no single Dallas rate fits every household. Retail electricity plans in most of DFW vary by provider and contract, and gas rates change with the market. Ten minutes with last year's bills gives a far better answer than any default would.
Electricity rate
Take a recent bill and divide the total electricity charges by the kWh used. That gives an all-in rate that includes delivery charges. If you can, do it for a summer and a winter month and use the average.
Gas rate and heating therms
Divide the gas charges by the therms used for an all-in rate. For heating therms, add up the therms on your winter bills, then subtract a summer month's usage multiplied by the same number of months. The summer baseline is your water heater, stove and dryer; what is left is roughly heating.
Example of the subtraction: say four winter bills total 160 therms and a typical summer bill is 15 therms. Heating is about 160 minus 4 × 15, or 100 therms. These are illustrative numbers, not Dallas averages.
Efficiencies
Leave the defaults to compare minimum-efficiency equipment. If a quote names a model, replace SEER2 and HSPF2 with the figures on its AHRI certificate or spec sheet. Your furnace's AFUE is on its rating plate or in its manual; an 80 percent unit is common in older DFW houses.
A worked example
The inputs below are hypothetical, chosen to show the arithmetic. They are not Dallas rates or averages; put your own in the calculator.
Say a 3-ton system, 600 hours of cooling a year, electricity at $0.15 per kWh, gas at $1.20 per therm, 300 heating therms last year and an 80 percent furnace. With the minimum 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2:
| Line | Arithmetic | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cooling, either system | 3 × 12,000 × 600 ÷ 14,300 = 1,510 kWh × $0.15 | about $227 |
| Furnace heating | 300 therms × $1.20 | $360 |
| Heat pump heating | 300 × 100,000 × 0.80 ÷ 7,500 = 3,200 kWh × $0.15 | $480 |
| Difference | $480 − $360 | heat pump about $120 a year more |
Now change one input at a time. Raise the heat pump's HSPF2 to 9.0 and heating falls to about 2,667 kWh, or $400, so the gap shrinks to about $40. Raise the gas rate to $1.50 instead and the furnace costs $450, leaving the minimum-efficiency heat pump about $30 more. Combine the two and the heat pump comes out ahead by about $50.
The lesson is not the specific numbers. It is that the result in a mild-winter climate often turns on a few dollars of heating, and the inputs that move it are your gas rate, your electricity rate and the heat pump's HSPF2.
How to read the result
- A small gap either way (tens of dollars a year) means running cost should not decide the choice. Look at install cost, the age of the furnace and whether you want to keep gas.
- A large gap usually comes from heavy heating use or a big difference in rates. Check the heating therms figure first, since an overstated baseline inflates it.
- The cooling line is identical for both systems by design. If you expect the heat pump to be more efficient at cooling, raise only its SEER2 mentally: the cooling cost scales down in proportion.
Running cost vs install cost
Annual running cost is only half the decision. The calculator shows the published 2026 DFW install ranges below the result: central AC by size, and a ducted heat pump as one all-sizes band of $6,500–$14,500. These are third-party published ranges, not this site's prices.
The fair comparison depends on the furnace. If it is healthy, compare the heat pump with AC alone, and the heat pump has to earn back any price difference through running costs. If the furnace is near the end of its life, compare the heat pump with AC plus a new furnace. ENERGY STAR says to consider replacement when a heat pump or air conditioner is more than 10 years old, and that a correctly installed high-efficiency unit can save up to 20 percent on heating and cooling costs.
To estimate a simple payback, divide the install price difference between two real quotes by the annual running-cost difference. If that takes longer than the equipment is likely to last, running cost alone does not justify the switch.
Assumptions and uncertainty
Defaults: 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 are the federal minimums for a new split AC under 45,000 Btu/h in Texas and for split heat pumps nationwide (AHRI, "2023 Energy Efficiency Standards"; DOE regional standards).
An AFUE of 80% is an editable starting point for an existing gas furnace; older furnaces can be lower. SEER2 and HSPF2 are seasonal averages, so real use varies with weather, ducts and thermostat habits.
Tiered and time-of-use electricity rates mean your extra kWh can cost more or less than your average rate. Treat the result as a range, not a forecast. Heat pump install prices are one all-sizes DFW band, because no DFW source publishes them by size. In a hard freeze a heat pump leans on backup heat, which this arithmetic does not model. In the February 2021 winter storm DFW Airport fell to -2 °F on 16 February and stayed at or below freezing for about 139 hours (13–19 February). Ask how a quoted heat pump handles backup heat, and whether dual fuel suits your house.
What to do next
- Confirm the system fits your ducts and heating with the system comparison tool.
- Read about heat pumps in DFW on the heat pump installation page, including backup heat.
- Ask for both quotes. Request a heat pump and an AC option from the same contractor so equipment tier and labor match.
- Re-run the calculator with each quoted model's SEER2 and HSPF2.
- Compare the full quotes in the quote comparison tool.
Sources
- ENERGY STAR, "When is it time to replace?" (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- NWS Fort Worth, "February 2021 Winter Event" (retrieved 2026-10-20) — verify before relying on it
- AHRI, "2023 Energy Efficiency Standards"; DOE regional standards (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- Cold Factor Heating & Air (Flower Mound, TX) (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- HVAC Services Pro (DFW) (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- HVAC Services Pro, DFW installation guide (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- HVACProjectCost.com, Dallas page (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- HVACProjectCost.com, Dallas page (retrieved 2026-09-23)
- HVAC Services Pro, DFW installation guide (retrieved 2026-09-23)
Questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than an AC and gas furnace in Dallas?
It depends on your electricity and gas rates and on how much you heat. Cooling costs are about the same if the efficiencies match; the difference is heating, where a heat pump uses electricity and a furnace uses gas. Enter your own rates to see the arithmetic.
Where do I find my rates?
On your bills. Divide the electricity charges by the kWh used, and the gas charges by the therms used, to get an all-in rate per unit. Tiered and time-of-use rates mean your marginal rate can differ from the average.
How do I estimate my AC hours?
Multiply the hours a day the system typically runs in summer by the number of cooling days. It does not change the comparison when SEER2 matches, because cooling is the same for both systems; it only changes the totals.
Does the calculator handle a hard freeze?
No. In deep cold a heat pump leans on backup heat, usually electric strips, which use more electricity than the HSPF2 average implies. Dual fuel, a heat pump with a gas furnace, avoids that by switching to gas.
What about the installation cost difference?
The calculator shows the published DFW install ranges next to the running costs. Compare a heat pump against AC plus a furnace if your furnace is near the end of its life, because the heat pump replaces both.
Why are the default efficiencies so low?
They are the federal minimums for new split systems in Texas, so the comparison starts on equal terms. If a quote names a model, replace the defaults with its rated SEER2 and HSPF2.
Next step
Free quote request
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